Moon Run System | Moon Run

Moon Run System

This book describes in detail how the Moon Run System works.  Nothing is left out!
All the details and coding is there. If you know algebra, you can understand this book

In addition to Amazon, the book can also be purchased on the publisher's website HERE.

USING METRICS TO DETERMINE BEAR MARKETS (Powerpoint File Download)

META STOCK INDICATORS & TIMERS FOR METASTOCK USERS (.ZIP file)

Sell and Buy Signal Spreadsheets

For sale are two spreadsheets that include calculations for the major sell and buy signals for the Moon Run Report.

On the date of the Short to Intermediate Market Timer buy or sell signal, the data is received from Metastock and entered into the spreadsheet. The Series of Tops formation is not included in the calculation because it needs a visual look to see what the metrics are for previous tops.

The Russell 2000 data is used from 1987 to 2000 for the first spreadsheet. IWM data is used from 2000 to the present. The Russell 2000 spreadsheet need not be updated, and copies of the IWM and all future updates can be downloaded after the first purchase. Each spreadsheet costs $10, so a total of $20 for both and all future updates.

There is no guarantee of accuracy. No responsibility of loss from using the spreadsheets can be taken.

 

History

Since the 2018 printing of Before the Bear Strikes, the Accelerating New Lows and the Shortable Correction rules have been altered.  These corrections have dramatically altered how those two work, and the product has been enhanced immesurably. Needing a live test for each, the Accelerating New Lows was tested in 2020, when the pandemic bear market hit, and the Shortable Correction was tested in 2022, when inflation was reported. The Tsunami Indicator was verified in 2008, 2011 and 2018.  The Normalized New Lows was verified in 2015.

References to Normalized New Lows mean the Nasdaq New Lows adjusted for number of issues traded

When the Short to Intermediate Market Timer gives a sell signal, I look for these rules:

1) Accelerating Normalized New Lows
   a) Rate of Decline < 100
   b) VIX > 23
   c) Market Strength Indicator < 3.8 at the sell signal
   d) Accelerating New Lows formula > 50%

2) Fifty New Lows Rule
   a) Normalized New Lows > 50 at the top
   b) Market Strength Indicator < 4.5 at the top
   c) Market Strength Indicator < 3.8 at the sell signal
   d) VIX > 19 And VIX < 25 at the sell signal

3) Tsunami Indicator
   a) Normalized New Lows > 40 at the sell signal
   b) Rate of Decline > 190 from top to sell signal
   c) Market Strength Indicator < 4.5 at the top
   d) Market Strength Indicator < 3.8 at the sell signal
   e) VIX > 19 And VIX < 25 at the sell signal

5) Shortable Correction
   a) Normalized New Lows > 30 at the top
   b) Normalized New Lows > 60 at the sell signal
   c) Rate of Decline < 190 from top to sell signal
   d) Option Timer Buy graph > 0.024 OR Market Strength Indicator < 3.8
   e)  Accelerating New Lows formula > 40%

At a buy signal I look for the Pep Indicator:

Pep Indicator flashes a signal
   a) Pep Indicator > 3.8% means market strong enough to reinvest
   b) Pep Indicator < 3.8% means do not go long, market weak
 
Here is a record of past Major Sell Signal happenings:
 
1987
9/8/1987 Tsunami Indicator flashes
10/1/1987 A minor buy signal flashes, do not sell
10/8/1987 A minor sell signal flashes, hold
12/17/1987 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, so time to reinvest

1990
4/23/1990 Tsunami Indicator flashes
5/11/1990 Pep Indicator is greater than 3.8%, so reinvest
7/23/1990 Tsunami Indicator flashes
11/12/1990 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, so time to reinvest

1998
7/23/1998 Fifty New Lows Rule flashes
10/25/1998 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2000 - 2002
3/20/2000 Fifty New Lows Rule flashes
6/2/2000 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
9/20/2000 Tsunami Indicator flashes
1/10/2001 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
2/16/2001 Tsunami Indicator flashes
4/18/2001 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
6/14/2001 Tsunami Indicator flashes
10/11/2001 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
2/4/2002 Tsunami Indicator flashes
3/1/2002 Pep Indicator above 3.8%, time to reinvest
5/6/2002 Tsunami Indicator flashes
10/25/2002 All Clear flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2006
5/11/2006 Shortable Correction flashes
8/29/2006 Pep Indicator is above 3.8% time to reinvest

2007-2008
10/9/2007 Shortable Correction flashes
4/18/2008 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
6/10/2008 FIfty New Lows Rule flashes
7/23/2008 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
9/5/2008 Tsunami Indicator flashes

2009
1/14/2009 Accelerating New Lows flashes
3/18/2009 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2010
1/19/2010 Accelerating New Lows flashes
7/23/2010 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2011
7/27/2011 Tsunami Indicator flashes, Series of Tops flashes
10/18/2011 All Clear flashes, Intermediate Buy signal flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2012
7/24/2012 Tsunami Indicator flashes
8/7/2012 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to invest

2015-2016
6/29/2015 Shortable Correction flashes
9/17/2015 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to invest
9/23/2015 Shortable Correction flashes
3/1/2016 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2018-2019
3/27/2018 Tsunami Indicator flashes
1/18/2019 Buy Signal Pep Indicator = 4.135% > 3.8%, Major buy signal invest

2020
2/24/2020 Accelerating New Lowsflashes.
4/8/2020 Pep indicator above 3.8%, time to invest

The following download contains all the sell signals generated in the Moon Run System.