Tsunami Indicator | Moon Run

Tsunami Indicator

In addition to Amazon, the book can also be purchased on the publisher's website HERE.

USING METRICS TO DETERMINE BEAR MARKETS (Powerpoint File Download)

META STOCK INDICATORS & TIMERS FOR METASTOCK USERS (.exe file)

Sell and Buy Signal Spreadsheets

For sale are two spreadsheets that include calculations for the major sell and buy signals for the Moon Run Report.

On the date of the Short to Intermediate Market Timer buy or sell signal, the data is received from Metastock and entered into the spreadsheet. The Series of Tops formation is not included in the calculation because it needs a visual look to see what the metrics are for previous tops.

The Russell 2000 data is used from 1987 to 2000 for the first spreadsheet. IWM data is used from 2000 to the present. The Russell 2000 spreadsheet need not be updated, and copies of the IWM and all future updates can be downloaded after the first purchase. Each spreadsheet costs $10, so a total of $20 for both and all future updates.

There is no guarantee of accuracy. No responsibility of loss from using the spreadsheets can be taken.

 

History

References to Normalized New Lows mean the Nasdaq New Lows adjusted for number of issues traded

When the Short to Intermediate Market Timer gives a sell signal, I look for several things:

1) Accelerating Normalized New Lows
   a) Rate of Decline < 100
   b) VIX > 23
   c) Market Strength Indicaxtor < 3.8 at the sell signal
   d) Accelerating New Lows formula > 50%

2) Fifty New Lows Rule
   a) Normalized New Lows > 50 at the top
   b) Market Strength Indicator < 4.5 at the top
   c) Market Strength Indicator < 3.8 at the sell signal
   d) VIX > 19 And VIX < 25 at the sell signal

3) Tsunami Indicator
   a) Normalized New Lows > 40 at the sell signal
   b) Rate of Decline > 190 from top to sell signal
   c) Market Strength Indicator < 4.5 at the top
   d) Market Strength Indicator < 3.8 at the sell signal
   e) VIX > 19 And VIX < 25 at the sell signal
 
4) Series of Tops
   a) Series of previous tops that have Normalized New Lows > 50 and are confirmed by a later verified sell signal

5) Shortable Correction
   a) Normalized New Lows > 30 at the top
   b) Normalized New Lows > 60 at the sell signal
   c) Rate of Decline < 190 from top to sell signal
   d) VIX < 20 at sell signal
   e) Subtract 0.5 from the Market Strength Indicator. When that number is achieved, cover short.
        If buy signal appears before the number achieved, cover hedge

At a buy signal I look for several things:

1) All Clear - usually means bottom is in place
2) Intermediate Buy Signal - invest for a quick trade until the next sell signal
3) Pep Indicator flashes a signal
   a) Pep Indicator > 3.8% means market strong enough to reinvest
   b) Pep Indicator < 3.8% means do not go long, market weak
 
Here is a record of past Tsunami happenings:
 
1987
9/8/1987 Tsunami Indicator flashes
10/1/1987 A minor buy signal flashes, but the Pep Indicator is below 3.8%, so do not reinvest
10/8/1987 A minor sell signa flashes, so the market continues its descent
12/17/1987 An All Clear flashes and the Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, so time to reinvest

1990
4/23/1990 Tsunami Indicator flashes
5/11/1990 Pep Indicator is greater than 3.8%, so reinvest
7/23/1990 Tsunami Indicator flashes
11/12/1990 All Clear flashes and the Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, so time to reinvest

1992
10/5/1992 Acclerating Normalized New Lows flashes
10/19/1992 Pep Indicator is above 3.8% so time to reinvest, take a loss

1997
3/12/1997 Shortable Correction flashes, take hedge position
4/2/1997 Market Strength Indicator Target achieved, cover hedge

1998
7/23/1998 Fifty New Lows Rule flashes
10/253/1998 All Clear flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2000
3/20/2000 Fifty New Lows Rule flashes
6/2/2000 Intermediate Buy Signal flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
7/25/2000 Sell signal terminates Intermediate Buy trade

2000-2002
9/20/200 Tsunami Indicator flashes
1/10/2001 Intermediate Buy signal flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
2/16/2001 Tsunami Indicator flashes
4/18/2001 Intermediate Buy signal flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
6/14/2001 Tsunami Indicator flashes
10/11/2001 Intermediate Buy signal flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
2/4/2002 Tsunami Indicator flashes
3/1/2002 Pep Indicator above 3.8%, time to reinvest
5/6/2002 Tsunami Indicator flashes
10/25/2002 All Clear flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2004
7/8/2004 Shortable Correction flashes, take hedge position
8/6/2004 Market Strength Indicator Target achieved, cover hedge

2005
3/9/2005 Shortable Correction flashes, take hedge position
4/14/2005 Market Strength Indicator Target achieved, cover hedge

2006
5/11/2006 Shortable Correction flashes, take hedge position
5/17/52006 Market Strength Indicator Target achieved, cover hedge

2007-2008
10/9/2007 Series of Tops signals, as there were two preceding tops
                    with Normalized New Lows > 50 and a verified sell signal with VIX > 19 And Vix < 25,
4/18/2008 Intermediate Buy signal flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
6/10/2008 FIfty New Lows Rule flashes
7/23/2008 Intermediate Buy signal flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest
9/5/2008 Tsunami Indicator flashes
12/12/2008 All Clear flashes, Pep Indicator is less than 3.8%, do not go long

2009
1/17/2009 Accelerating New Lows flashes
3/18/2009 All Clear and Intermediate Buy signal both flash, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2010
5/6/2010 Acclerating New Lows flashes
7/23/2010 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2011
5/16/2011 Shortable Correction flashes
5/31/2011 Buy signal terminates trade, cover hedge and take a loss
6/3/2011 Shortabove Correction flashes
6/15/2011 Market Strength Indicator Target achieved, cover hedge
7/27/2011 Tsunami Indicator flashes, Series of Tops flashes
10/18/2011 All Clear flashes, Intermediate Buy signal flashes, Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2012
7/24/2012 Tsunami Indicator flashes
8/7/2012 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, cover and take a loss

2015-2016
6/29/2015 Shortable Correction flashes
8/21/2015 Market Strength Indicator Target achieved, cover hedge
11/13/2015 Fifty New Lows Rule flashes
11/18/2015 All Clear flashes, but Pep Indicator is below 3.8%. Do not go long
12/9/2015 Shortable Correction and Fifty New Lows Rule both flash.  Since already on a short since 11/13/2015, do not cover
1/7/2016 Market Strength Indicator Target achieved, cover hedge
3/1/2016 Pep Indicator is above 3.8%, time to reinvest

2018-2019
3/27/2018 Tsunami Indicator flashes
5/16/2018 Buy Signal, Pep Indicator = 1.747% <3.8%, minor buy signal do not invest
8/21/2018 Buy SIgnal Pep Indicator = 3.669% < 3.8%, minor buy signal do not invest
1/18/2019 Buy SIgnal Pep Indicator = 4.135% > 3.8%, Major buy signal invest
8/2/2019 Shortable Correction flashes
9/5/2019 Shortable Correction ends with Pep Inidcator = 4.490% > 3.8% due to difficulty in getting a fair price on 8/2/2019, this ended in a wash