Investment Philosophy

Investment Philosophy

Bryan Johnson
Moon Run Report, LLC

My approach to the stock market is to have a diverse array of timers and stock selection methods so as to balance one’s portfolio and not count on one way to be profitable.

In the year 2000 I started with a package that featured timing and stock selection, basically an intermediate term market timing tool.  However, it took so long for me to figure out how to be profitable that it was probably a waste of time.  I was making about 5% a year, with the volatility being so great that my account was unrecognizable from year start to year end.

I now have a package that features rebalancing.  The advantage of using rebalancing and timing does wonders for a portfolio, and it is much easier to find winning systems than timing alone.  Also, this package has fundamental data like Return on Equity that you would normally find in stock market data.

The problem of following someone else’s system or method is that one is faced with decision-making that the originator may not have encountered.  Stop losses can be approached differently by each system and reshuffling the deck with new picks may not lend itself readily.

The purpose of investing should be first and foremost Conservation of Capital.  Many designers fail to reach for a safety net when they try to break the bank.  Reality sets in when the market corrects and the portfolio is faced with huge losses.  Buying leveraged funds on margin or high flyers on margin is a common tactic for portfolios that shoot for the moon.  However, to keep the public interested, these developers keep offering “sky is the limit” systems.  They run to the bank collecting fees and commissions until the well runs dry and the system crashes.  The solution they feel is to come up with a new system that breaks the bank and history repeats.

Portfolio Management should be a key concern too.   I like to deal with packages that will pick your stocks for you in a systematic method.  And use conservative investing methods along with more aggressive ways to keep the portfolio balanced.  How many investors would like to stay out of the market during the steep drop and come back when safety admits?  I will try to address this as well.

The Tsunami indicator was found after I visited a mutual fund manager’s semi-annual meeting and he challenged anyone to find how to determine tops and bottoms within 6 days.  I couldn’t do the 6 days bit, but it’s close enough to calling big drops and eliminates the downward wiggles that soon recover and the market goes higher.

This website is trying to fill the gap of performance verses sales in the market.  It is well known that fund managers want to keep people investing in their fund because they can charge fees to support their efforts.  Strategies to go to cash are not normally favored because managers by their charter usually need to keep a certain percentage invested.  I hope I can be successful with this website and hope you find it interesting and profitable.