How To Use This Website
Bryan Johnson
Moon Run Report, LLC
I started this website to take advantage of my expertise in the market and to provide intermediate and long-term timing goals for investing. I know, there are people that want you to break the bank and retire in 3 years, but I feel that investing can be low risk and effervescent at the same time.
When you log in, the Stock Picks and Track Record pages are underneath the Member Info link.
The Stock Picks page will be updated each Saturday if there are active positions. Positions sold and bought will appear beneath the grid allowed for stocks. There is a graph near each portfolio that follows along the performance.
The Track Record page will be updated when the timers switch, like bonds or Emerging markets. Positions sold and bought will appear beneath the grid for timers. If you are uncomfortable trading a portfolio, why not invest in the QQQ, IWM or SPY ETF’s? They should provide a good profit.
The Signal Status page shows commentary about the latest Short to Intermediate Market Timing change
The Analysis Tips page shows a bit about an approach to trade options, futures and ETF’s.
The Charts page shows the Moon Run System metrics, the Confidence Indicators and the Conponents of the Market Strength Indicator.
The Description of Portfolios page underneath the Key Info link shows a backtest of the stock strategies with statistics of how well it performs. Personally, I trade all portfolios. It’s a matter of taste as to what the subscriber might want to use. Keep in mind that the maximum drawdown I try to keep no more than about 25%.
Every now and then the Major Sell Signals will give a bear market forecast, and it is best to sell your long positions during these periods. The Major Buy and Major Sell Signals govern all the portfolios.
Also, a Shortable Correction market timing signal will generate when to hedge the market by selling short an index fund. My opinion is that the market will be such that holding on to the stocks but adding a protective short will do the best. Corrections can be very damaging and it is up to the investor on how to handle these. A 50% to 100% hedge during shortable corrections should be able to weather the storm.
Weekend Update
On Saturday morning, I write a short description of metrics that are useful and commentary. Among things entered are:
Normalized New Lows
Market Strength Indicator – Two thresholds matter: 4.50 at the top of the market and 3.80 otherwise. Market is bullish above 3.80, bearish below 3.80
Long Term Market Strength Indicator – The threshold 4.20 means the market is “volatile” below 4.20, “safe” above.
NYSE and Nasdaq Confidence Indexes – When above zero signals a bullish market. When rising above -50 suggests a bottom.
Moon Run System – Most recent signal status
When placing trades
Before the open I place my trades with the intent of getting at least a little bit away from the prior closing price.
When buying a stock I multiply the prior closing price by 1.02 as the limit, so if it moves 2% higher when opening I should get a fill.
Also, when selling a stock I multiply the prior closing price by .98 as the limit, so if it move 2% lower when opening I should get a fill.
Once the stock opens I check to see if it gets filled. If not, I will change it to a market order and be done with it.
This is the recommended policy.
Portfolio Management
Use this website as you see fit. The Timing and Track Record page is useful to build a portfolio of ETF’s. Although I do not post a collection of ETF’s as a portfolio, you can use the signals to generate a portfolio yourself. I spent years trying to get good timers and they are working well. Many of my subscribers use an index ETF to track my timers instead of using the portfolios. The Options Timer and the Momentum Indicator are good for timing credit spreads, debit spreads and puts and calls. Puts are useful for shorting in a bear market but not minor sell signals. Calls are useful when the market is in full gear. An all-in or all-out approach to the market may not be your desire, but I like to be defensive when the time arise.
Trade percentage
I place equal amounts of money in each stock in each 10 stock portfolio. so, for a $30,000 portfolio, $3,000 would be in each stock. For the ETF portfolio, I place 1/16 into each ETF.
Do it yourself
You may want to buy MetaStock, put in the indicators and insert them into the spreadsheet to get the signals. Metastock has a data feed that is separate from the price of the program. The indicators are found on the Tsunami Indicator page as a download. The spreadsheets are also found on the Tsunami Indicator page and after an initial $10 charge the updates are free.
Portfolio 123 is the stock selection of choice, and my portfolios are set to public, so if you have a Portfolio 123 subscription you can look at the code by title name.
I send emails every weekend and when necessary to update subscribers on the market or signals. Thank you for looking at this website!
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Drawdowns
The idea behind this website is to avoid bear markets and diversify into mutually exclusive stock market methods. The Tsunami Indicator, I feel, does a fine job of calling bear markets. But how about the corrections that happen now and then? It is very difficult to be out in every correction and still maintain a long-term perspective. During the bull market in 2009, there were several small corrections. I did not call the top in these, and the corrections in October 2009 may have felt like a bear market. I would rather take a short term decline instead of bailing out and trying to make everything look rosy. In October 2009 the Conservative portfolio had a 12.5% decline and the Aggressive portfolio had a 16% decline, top to bottom. During that time the Dow took a 4% hit and the IWM went down 10%. The basic problem of long-term investing needs to be addressed. My website does not attempt to be all things to all people, so you may feel that it does not meet your needs for profitability. The concept of diversifying into several different actively managed portfolios addresses the concept of diversification as well as performance.