How to use this website

How To Use This Website

Bryan Johnson
Moon Run Report, LLC

I started this website to take advantage of my expertise in the market and to provide intermediate and long term timing goals for investing.  I know, there are people that want you to break the bank and retire in 3 years, but I feel that investing can be low risk and effervescent at the same time.

When you log in, the Stock Picks and Track Record pages are underneath the Member Info link.

The Stock Picks page will be updated each Saturday if there are active positions.  Positions sold and bought will appear beneath the grid allowed for stocks.  There is a graph near each portfolio that follows along the performance.
 
The Track Record page will be updated when the timers switch, like bonds or Emerging markets.  Positions sold and bought will appear beneath the grid for timers. If you are unconfortable trading a portfolio, why not invest in the QQQ, IWM or SPY ETF's? They should provide a good profit.
 
The Signal Status page showst commentary about the latest Short to Intermediate Market Timing change

The Options Research shows a bit about an approach to trade options.

The Description of Portfolios page underneath the Key Info link shows a backtest of the stock strategies with statistics of how well it performs.  Personally, I trade all portfolios.  It's a matter of taste as to what the subscriber might want to use.  Keep in mind that the maximum drawdown I try to keep no more than about 25%.

Every now and then the Tsunami Indicator or the Long Term S&P Timer will give a "sell everything" signal, and it is best to come out of the market during these periods.  The Tsunami Indicator governs the Prudent, Value, Aggressive, Breakout, Microcap and Small Cap portfolios.  The Long Term S&P Timer governs the Conservative and Mega Cap portfolios.

Also, a Shortable Correction market timing signal will generate when to hedge the market by selling short an index fund.  My opinion is that the market will be such that holding on to the stocks but adding a protective short will do the best.  Corrections can be very damaging and it is up to the investor on how to handle these.  A 50% to 100% hedge during shortable corrections should be able to weather the storm.

Weekend Update
On Saturday morning, I write a short description of metrics that are useful and commentary.  Among things entered are:

Normalized New Lows
Market Strength Indicator - Two thresholds matter: 4.50 at the top of the market and 3.80 otherwise. Market is bullish above 3.80, bearish below 3.80
Long Term Market Strength Indicator - The threshold 4.20 means the market is "volatile" below 4.20, "safe" above.
Long Term S&P Timer - bullish or bearish at the time
Short To Intermdiate Market TImer - The most recent reading of this key timer

Do it yourself

You may want to buy MetaStock, put in the indicators and insert them into the spreadsheet to get the signals.  Metastock has a data feed that is separate from the price of the program.  The indicators are found on the Tsunami Indicator page as a download.  The spreadsheets are also found on the Tsunami Indicator page and after an initial $10 charge the updates are free.

Portfolio 123 is the stock selection of choice, and my portfolios are set to public, so if you have a Portfolio 123 subscription you can look at the code by title name.

I send emails every weekend and when necessary to update subscribers on the market or signals.  Thank you for looking at this website!
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Drawdowns
 
The idea behind this website is to avoid bear markets and diversify into mutually exclusive stock market methods.  The Tsunami Indicator, I feel, does a fine job of calling bear markets.  But how about the corrections that happen now and then?  It is very difficult to be out in every correction and still maintain a long term perspective.  During the bull market in 2009, there were several small corrections.  I did not call the top in these, and the corrections in October 2009 may have felt like a bear market.  I would rather take a short term decline instead of bailing out and trying to make everything look rosy.  In October 2009 the Conservative portfolio had a 12.5% decline and the Aggressive portfolio had a 16% decline, top to bottom.  During that time the Dow took a 4% hit and the IWM went down 10%.  The basic problem of long term investing needs to be addressed.  My website does not attempt to be all things to all people, so you may feel that it does not meet your needs for profitability.  The concept of diversifying into several different actively managed portfolios addresses the concept of diversification as well as performance.