Sample Interview notes for the Moon Run Report and Before the Bear Strikes

Essay for TV and Radio hosts on the Moon Run Report website and Before the Bear Strikes book.

Host: Good evening! Today our guest is Bryan Johnson who hails from Pittsburgh PA and is a self-taught stock market expert. We will review the course of events and accomplishments to discover what Mr. Johnson has found studying the stock market. Bryan how are you tonight?

Me: Fine! I’m delighted to be here today.

Host: So, how did you get started in the market and when did you start being successful?

Me: I started in 1979 when my dad and later an options broker got me into options where I struggled and lost nearly all my money in a short period of time. Then, in 1989 I took a course by a chart-and-timing service which taught me about chart formations and how to spot market tops and bottoms. Using this, in the next 10 years I lost money in 9 years and made money in only one year. So, I decided that following other peoples’ methods are not the way to go.

In 2005 I used a tool called Metastock which helped me in discovering one way of calling bear markets with a small sample. In 2006 I attended a mutual fund manager’s meeting where he announced that if anyone could call tops and bottoms within 6 days, he had a job for him. So, I went home, did my study, and sent it in. The next time I saw him I asked if I had a job. He said no. Undaunted, in 2008 I entered the World Cup Championship of Stock Trading®, called the crash in September and won with a 48% gain for the year. This is a real money contest and audited where top money managers (and whoever wants to compete) can show their skills.

Host: What led you to writing the book?

Me: Through the years I discovered other setups of bear markets and wanted to organize and compile my ideas. My first invention, called the Tsunami Indicator, was followed by the Fifty New Lows Rule, the Accelerating New Lows, and the Shortable Correction. In 2016 I invented the Pep Indicator which shows when to get into the market when a new rally starts after a serious decline.
Host: Can you describe these for me?

Me: Concept behind the Tsunami Indicator: The Tsunami Indicator identifies when the market stalls out and the internals start falling apart. This can be described mathematically.

Concept behind the Fifty New Lows Rule: This rule is used to identify when the market has risen to where the number of New Lows at the top of the market is too high, and the market starts to weaken.

Concept behind the Accelerating New Lows: This is used to identify when the market starts plummeting such that the number of new lows gets very large suggesting a bear market.

Concept behind the Shortable Correction: This covers all other periods where the market is picking up steam on the downside to the point of identifying a large correction but not necessarily a bear market.

Host: How well have these concepts covered bear market?

Me: The backtest starts in 1987 and covers all bear markets to the present day (2022). It oversteps a few times, but when it loses money, it doesn’t lose too much. Called the Moon Run System, it is 80% accurate during this period. Since 2006, it’s called the bear market in 2008, the near-bear market in 2011 and in 2018, when the Federal Reserve started raising rates. I did not call the bear market starting in 2020, but sold when the IWM, or the Russell 2000 ETF, plunged 20% and went back in the market in April 2020. The Accelerating New Lows concept was redesigned at that point. In 2022, I did not call that bear market, but again sold when the IWM fell 20% from the top. The Shortable Correction concept was redesigned and called a significant downturn shortly afterwards. Live tests are important for any system.

Host: Describe your website for us please

Me: My website is the Moon Run Report, ww.moonrunreport.com, and the price is $10 a month. I have 6 portfolios: two Midcap portfolios with market cap between 2 billion and 10 billion, two what I call Minor Cap portfolios with market cap between 500 million and 2 billion, and two Small Cap portfolios with market cap below 500 million. I also host an ETF portfolio which invests at times in 16 ETFs. I send out a weekly report and update stock and ETF recommendations when needed.

Host: How is this unique?

Me: I use market timing techniques to identify precise dates as to when to be in the market and when to be out of the market. Since I identify tops and bottoms, I can invest in my portfolios and rotate stock in and out depending on the buy and sell rules. Holding stocks through the minor buy and sell signals until the bear market signal can enhance performance instead of selling at the first sign of weakness. After a bear market, there may be minor buy signals which will not be invested during the decline.

Host: Minor buy and sell signals – please describe

Me: First when a market bottom is identified by my timer (Called the Short to Intermediate Market Timer) and confirmed by the Pep Indicator (and called the Major Buy Signal), I invest in my portfolios. My timer then flashes a sell signal where I look at the Tsunami Indicator rules, the Fifty New Lows rules, the Accelerating New Lows rules and the Shortable Correction rules and if at least one of them proves to be valid, I sell all my stocks. If it is none of those, I call it a Minor Sell Signal and hold onto my stocks and wait until the next sell signal appears. After the Minor Sell Signal, there may appear a Minor Buy Signal where the Pep Indicator does not confirm the advance -OR- the Major Buy Signal. At this point I ignore the signal and wait for the next Major Sell Signal. On the next Major Sell Signal, sell all my stocks then wait for the next Major Buy Signal to appear. All Minor Sell Signals and Minor Buy Signals are ignored until then.

Host: What has been your performance since 2008?

From September 30, 2008, to today I am achieving above 22% CAGR in my Fidelity account. I was runner-up in the World Cup Championship of Stock Trading® in 2009 and gained 95%. I was Timer Digest Bond Timer of the Year in 2019. My book is in its second edition and is available on Amazon. I am ranked by HulbertRatings.com

Host: Thank you very much!